The Back-to-School Effect: How Seasonal Shifts Impact the Housing Market

The Back-to-School Effect: How Seasonal Shifts Impact the Housing Market

It’s back-to-school season and many Alabama households are transitioning from the relaxed pace of summer to the structured demands of another academic year. But this seasonal change isn't just felt in homes and classrooms. As families focus on new routines, the real estate landscape also experiences a shift, offering both opportunities and challenges for buyers and sellers. 

 

The Push to Settle Before the School Year

Peak moving season traditionally occurs in the U.S. in mid-May through mid-September—between Memorial Day and Labor Day. Moving during this four-month period not only provides for more favorable weather conditions, but also offers a smoother transition for families with school-aged children hoping to be settled before the school year begins.

For many of these buyers, the quality of the local school district is a primary consideration. Homes in top-rated districts are not only more attractive to families but also tend to hold their value over time. 

Statistics from the National Association of REALTORS® 2024 Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends Report indicate that 18 percent of buyers are influenced by the quality of neighborhood school districts when purchasing a home. This becomes even more important for particular age groups — for buyers aged 25 to 33, the number jumps to 27 percent, and for those aged 34 to 43, it’s 37 percent. This strong focus on district reputation and desirability can lead to increased competition in these sought-after areas, potentially driving up home prices and accelerating sales.

 

The Post Back-to-School Slowdown

As the school year gets underway and the weather starts to cool, the housing market historically begins to shift. 

According to Alabama Economic and Real Estate Reports from last year, there were 6,577 homes sales in June 2023, compared to 5,918 sales in September 2023. So, while activity tends to slow down compared to the busy spring and summer months, it doesn’t come to a standstill. And while the typical school-focused family may be settled, other buyers take center stage. 

First-time buyers: Many buyers in this segment are young professionals or couples who aren’t as focused on the school calendar and may see this season as an opportunity to find a home with less competition. 

Relocation buyers: Corporate relocations and job transfers don’t follow the school calendar, which means these buyers are active year-round. This group is typically motivated to find a home quickly, which makes them serious buyers ready to make strong offers as soon as they find the right property.

Empty nesters: With grown children out of the house, empty nesters are often looking to downsize or relocate. Whether they are moving closer to family, transitioning to a retirement community, or simply seeking a smaller, maintenance-free home, empty nesters can take advantage of the slower pace to make their move.

Investors: With historically-less competition this time of year, investors may find it easier to identify opportunities for rental homes, house “flipping” projects, or long-term investments. The quieter market may allow these buyers to negotiate more favorable terms on properties that may have lingered after the busier summer months.

Second-home buyers: This group is often less tied to strict timelines, so they aren’t as affected by the back-to-school rush. However, they are strategic, often looking to make purchases before the winter season, when prices in popular vacation markets typically rise. 

While the classroom bell marks the end of a busy summer buying season, it also signals the start of a steady, more focused real estate market. Understanding these seasonal trends and shifts allows buyers, sellers, and REALTORS® to navigate the market with greater confidence.